In 2020, China engineered a V-shaped recovery from the pandemic, the only major economy to do so, with its real GDP level regaining its lost ground by the end of 2Q20. China’s expansion continues this year, but with a focus on the quality over quantity of growth. China aims to shift gears back to its long-term priorities by normalizing policy and growth drivers. The March economic data shows the baton moving back to the “new China” (domestic demand and consumption) from last year’s “old China” (external demand and investment). For investors, this is the most interesting long-term opportunity: China’s domestic consumption, technological innovation and energy transition. Crucially, these themes are more accessible as China’s capital markets continue to develop and open up. Independent of the business cycle, China is turning into a structural allocation on both sides of the 60/40 portfolio.
